Updated 11:29 PM ET on Nov. 5
President
Nov. 6 Forecast
Mitt Romney
Barack Obama
222.8
-16.2 since Oct. 30
315.2
+16.2 since Oct. 30
270 to win
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
330
270
210
8.0%
-14.6 since Oct. 30
92.0%
+14.6 since Oct. 30
50%
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
48.2%
-0.3 since Oct. 30
50.9%
+0.5 since Oct. 30
50%
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
46%
50%
54%
Mitt Romney
Barack Obama
222.8
-16.4 since Oct. 30
315.2
+16.4 since Oct. 30
270 to win
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
330
270
210
8.0%
-12.5 since Oct. 30
92.0%
+12.5 since Oct. 30
50%
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
48.2%
-0.4 since Oct. 30
50.9%
+0.5 since Oct. 30
50%
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
46%
50%
54%
State-by-State Probabilities
Electoral Vote Distribution
The probability that President Obama receives a given number
of Electoral College votes.
150
210
270
330
390
5%
10%
15%
20% probability
Tipping Point States
The probability that a state provides the decisive electoral
vote.
|
1 Ohio
49.8%
|
6 Colo.
6.2%
|
11 Mich.
0.3%
|
|
2 Va.
12.4%
|
7 Pa.
3.4%
|
12 N.M.
0.2%
|
|
3 Nev.
9.4%
|
8 N.H.
3.2%
|
13 Me. Dist. 2
0.2%
|
|
4 Wis.
6.7%
|
9 Fla.
0.9%
|
14 Minn.
0.2%
|
|
5 Iowa
6.5%
|
10 Ore.
0.3%
|
15 N.C.
0.1%
|
Return on Investment Index
The relative likelihood that an individual voter would
determine the Electoral College winner.
|
1 Nev.
12.6
|
6 Colo.
3.4
|
11 Fla.
0.2
|
|
2 Ohio
11.8
|
7 Wis.
3.0
|
12 Ore.
0.2
|
|
3 N.H.
6.2
|
8 Me. Dist. 2
0.9
|
13 Mich.
0.1
|
|
4 Iowa
5.7
|
9 Pa.
0.8
|
14 Neb. Dist.
2 0.1
|
|
5 Va.
4.4
|
10 N.M.
0.4
|
15 Minn.
0.1
|
Scenario Analysis
How often the following situations occurred during repeated
simulated elections.
- Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.2%
- Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 5.7%
- Obama wins popular vote 87.9%
- Romney wins popular vote 12.1%
- Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 0.6%
- Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 4.7%
- Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.3%
- Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) <0 .1=".1" span="span">
- Map exactly the same as in 2008 0.1%
- Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0 .1=".1" span="span">
- Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 99.7%
- Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 4.5%
State-by-State Probabilities
Electoral Vote Distribution
The probability that President Obama receives a given number
of Electoral College votes.
150
210
270
330
390
5%
10%
15%
20% probability
Tipping Point States
The probability that a state provides the decisive electoral
vote.
|
1 Ohio
49.8%
|
6 Colo.
6.2%
|
11 Mich.
0.3%
|
|
2 Va.
12.4%
|
7 Pa.
3.4%
|
12 N.M.
0.2%
|
|
3 Nev.
9.4%
|
8 N.H.
3.2%
|
13 Me. Dist. 2
0.2%
|
|
4 Wis.
6.7%
|
9 Fla.
0.9%
|
14 Minn.
0.2%
|
|
5 Iowa
6.5%
|
10 Ore.
0.3%
|
15 N.C.
0.1%
|
Return on Investment Index
The relative likelihood that an individual voter would
determine the Electoral College winner.
|
1 Nev.
12.6
|
6 Colo.
3.4
|
11 Fla.
0.2
|
|
2 Ohio
11.8
|
7 Wis.
3.0
|
12 Ore.
0.2
|
|
3 N.H.
6.2
|
8 Me. Dist. 2
0.9
|
13 Mich.
0.1
|
|
4 Iowa
5.7
|
9 Pa.
0.8
|
14 Neb. Dist.
2 0.1
|
|
5 Va.
4.4
|
10 N.M.
0.4
|
15 Minn.
0.1
|
Scenario Analysis
How often the following situations occurred during repeated
simulated elections.
- Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.2%
- Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 5.7%
- Obama wins popular vote 87.9%
- Romney wins popular vote 12.1%
- Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 0.6%
- Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 4.7%
- Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.3%
- Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) <0 .1=".1" span="span">
- Map exactly the same as in 2008 0.1%
- Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0 .1=".1" span="span">
- Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 99.7%
- Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 4.5%
State-by-State Probabilities
Senate Seat Distribution
The probability that the Republican or Democratic party
controls the senate by a given number of seats.
+10
Rep.
Rep.
Tie
+10
Dem.
Dem.
5%
10%
15%
20% probability
Tipping Point States
The probability that a state provides the Senate seat that
leads to a majority.
|
1 Va.
13.4%
|
6 Ind.
6.5%
|
11 W.Va.
2.5%
|
|
2 Mass.
13.3%
|
7 N.M.
5.8%
|
12 Fla.
2.3%
|
|
3 Mo.
13.0%
|
8 Conn.
5.7%
|
13 Ariz.
1.6%
|
|
4 Wis.
11.5%
|
9 Pa.
5.6%
|
14 Nev.
1.5%
|
|
5 Ohio
10.5%
|
10 Mont.
2.8%
|
15 N.D.
0.7%
|
Democratic Bang for the Buck
The relative amount that a $2,500 contribution to the senate
candidate would increase the Democratic Party's chances of winning the
seat.
|
1 Ariz.
4.5
|
6 N.M.
1.9
|
11 Mont.
1.3
|
|
2 Ind.
4.4
|
7 Conn.
1.7
|
12 Va.
1.2
|
|
3 N.D.
3.5
|
8 Nev.
1.6
|
13 Ohio
0.9
|
|
4 Neb.
2.7
|
9 Pa.
1.5
|
14 Mo.
0.8
|
|
5 Tex.
2.0
|
10 Wis.
1.4
|
15 Fla.
0.8
|
Republican Bang for the Buck
The relative amount that a $2,500 contribution to the senate
candidate would increase the Republican Party's chances of winning the
seat.
|
1 W.Va.
3.9
|
6 Ariz.
1.9
|
11 Fla.
1.2
|
|
2 Neb.
3.6
|
7 N.D.
1.8
|
12 Pa.
1.1
|
|
3 Mo.
2.7
|
8 N.M.
1.8
|
13 Me.
1.1
|
|
4 Wis.
2.6
|
9 Mont.
1.7
|
14 Va.
1.0
|
|
5 Ind.
2.5
|
10 Nev.
1.3
|
15 Ohio
0.8
|
State-by-State Projections
Detailed polling analysis and projections for the statewide
presidential vote, along with recent polls where available.
Colorado
| FiveThirtyEight Projections | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling average | 48.6 | 46.7 | Obama +1.9 |
| Adjusted polling average | 49.1 | 46.4 | Obama +2.7 |
| State fundamentals | 48.9 | 46.5 | Obama +2.4 |
| Now-cast | 49.1 | 46.4 | Obama +2.7 |
| Projected vote share ±3.0 | 50.9 | 48.2 | Obama +2.7 |
| Chance of winning | 82% | 18% |
| Polls | 538 WT. | Date | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos (online) | 11/5 | 48.0 | 47.0 | Obama +1.0 | |
| Ipsos (online) | 11/4 | 48.0 | 48.0 | Tie | |
| Keating Research | 11/4 | 50.0 | 46.0 | Obama +4.0 | |
| PPP | 11/4 | 52.0 | 46.0 | Obama +6.0 | |
| Ipsos (online) | 11/3 | 45.0 | 47.0 | Romney +2.0 | |
Florida
| FiveThirtyEight Projections | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling average | 47.6 | 48.3 | Romney +0.7 |
| Adjusted polling average | 48.4 | 47.9 | Obama +0.5 |
| State fundamentals | 46.3 | 49.2 | Romney +2.9 |
| Now-cast | 48.2 | 48.0 | Obama +0.2 |
| Projected vote share ±2.7 | 49.9 | 49.7 | Obama +0.2 |
| Chance of winning | 53% | 47% |
| Polls | 538 WT. | Date | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos (online) | 11/5 | 47.0 | 48.0 | Romney +1.0 | |
| InsiderAdvantage | 11/4 | 47.0 | 52.0 | Romney +5.0 | |
| Ipsos (online) | 11/4 | 46.0 | 46.0 | Tie | |
| PPP | 11/4 | 50.0 | 49.0 | Obama +1.0 | |
| Angus Reid | 11/3 | 49.0 | 49.0 | Tie | |
Iowa
| FiveThirtyEight Projections | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling average | 48.6 | 46.0 | Obama +2.6 |
| Adjusted polling average | 49.1 | 45.7 | Obama +3.4 |
| State fundamentals | 49.3 | 46.1 | Obama +3.2 |
| Now-cast | 49.1 | 45.7 | Obama +3.4 |
| Projected vote share ±3.2 | 51.2 | 47.8 | Obama +3.4 |
| Chance of winning | 86% | 14% |
| Polls | 538 WT. | Date | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 11/4 | 48.0 | 49.0 | Romney +1.0 | |
| PPP | 11/4 | 50.0 | 48.0 | Obama +2.0 | |
| YouGov | 11/3 | 48.0 | 47.0 | Obama +1.0 | |
| Grove | 11/2 | 47.0 | 44.0 | Obama +3.0 | |
| Selzer | 11/2 | 47.0 | 42.0 | Obama +5.0 | |
Nebraska CD-2 District 2
| FiveThirtyEight Projections | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling average | 44.7 | 49.1 | Romney +4.4 |
| Adjusted polling average | 47.5 | 50.9 | Romney +3.4 |
| State fundamentals | 45.7 | 50.0 | Romney +4.3 |
| Now-cast | 46.1 | 50.2 | Romney +4.1 |
| Projected vote share ±3.8 | 47.6 | 51.7 | Romney +4.1 |
| Chance of winning | 14% | 86% |
New
Hampshire
| FiveThirtyEight Projections | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling average | 49.1 | 46.5 | Obama +2.6 |
| Adjusted polling average | 49.5 | 46.2 | Obama +3.3 |
| State fundamentals | 50.9 | 44.2 | Obama +6.7 |
| Now-cast | 49.6 | 45.9 | Obama +3.7 |
| Projected vote share ±3.4 | 51.5 | 47.8 | Obama +3.7 |
| Chance of winning | 86% | 14% |
| Polls | 538 WT. | Date | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | 11/4 | 50.0 | 46.0 | Obama +4.0 | |
| PPP | 11/4 | 50.0 | 48.0 | Obama +2.0 | |
| American Research Group | 11/4 | 49.0 | 49.0 | Tie | |
| New England College | 11/4 | 50.0 | 46.0 | Obama +4.0 | |
| Rasmussen | 11/4 | 50.0 | 48.0 | Obama +2.0 | |
North
Carolina
| FiveThirtyEight Projections | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling average | 46.7 | 48.6 | Romney +1.9 |
| Adjusted polling average | 47.3 | 48.4 | Romney +1.1 |
| State fundamentals | 45.5 | 50.0 | Romney +4.5 |
| Now-cast | 47.0 | 48.6 | Romney +1.6 |
| Projected vote share ±2.6 | 48.9 | 50.5 | Romney +1.6 |
| Chance of winning | 28% | 72% |
| Polls | 538 WT. | Date | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 11/4 | 46.0 | 50.0 | Romney +4.0 | |
| PPP | 11/4 | 49.2 | 49.4 | Romney +0.2 | |
| YouGov | 11/3 | 47.0 | 49.0 | Romney +2.0 | |
| PPP | 10/31 | 49.0 | 49.0 | Tie | |
| High Point University | 10/30 | 45.0 | 46.0 | Romney +1.0 | |
Virginia
| FiveThirtyEight Projections | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling average | 48.2 | 46.9 | Obama +1.3 |
| Adjusted polling average | 48.9 | 46.6 | Obama +2.3 |
| State fundamentals | 48.3 | 47.2 | Obama +1.1 |
| Now-cast | 48.8 | 46.6 | Obama +2.2 |
| Projected vote share ±2.5 | 50.8 | 48.6 | Obama +2.2 |
| Chance of winning | 81% | 19% |
| Polls | 538 WT. | Date | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos (online) | 11/5 | 48.0 | 46.0 | Obama +2.0 | |
| PPP | 11/4 | 51.0 | 47.0 | Obama +4.0 | |
| Ipsos (online) | 11/4 | 47.0 | 46.0 | Obama +1.0 | |
| YouGov | 11/3 | 48.0 | 46.0 | Obama +2.0 | |
| Ipsos (online) | 11/3 | 48.0 | 45.0 | Obama +3.0 | |
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